What happened, in plain English
From 2021 through 2025, the federal government paid an extra-large share of Marketplace premiums through “enhanced” premium tax credits. Those credits are a big part of why Marketplace enrollment grew to 24.2 million people in 2025 — more than double the 2021 number (CMS). Congress let the enhanced credits expire on December 31, 2025.
Two things then hit at the same time. First, insurers raised benchmark premiums roughly 26% for 2026 (KFF). Second, the extra subsidy disappeared — so the amount many people actually pay rose far more than 26%. KFF and CBO projected that subsidized enrollees’ own premium payments would more than double on average: up 114%, from $888 to $1,904 per year.
The fallout is already visible. By early 2026, roughly 9% of people who had 2025 Marketplace coverage were uninsured (KFF), and CBO projects about 10 million more people uninsured by 2034 under the 2025 budget law plus the subsidy expiration. So if your renewal letter looked shocking, it was probably not a mistake. But it is also not the end of the story — most people still have moves to make.
Step 1: Check whether you still qualify for help
The enhanced credits expired. The original ACA premium tax credits did not. Under the permanent ACA rules, households with income between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level can still qualify for a premium tax credit on a sliding scale — the lower your income, the larger the credit. Above 400% of the poverty level there is now no credit at all (the old “subsidy cliff” is back).
That means your real 2026 price depends on your household income, family size, age, and county — not on the headline rate increase. Before you assume you get nothing, do these three things:
- Update your Marketplace application with your actual expected income. Many people are auto-renewed with old income data and see a worse price than they would get with current numbers.
- Check Medicaid and CHIP if your income dropped. In states that expanded Medicaid, adults with income up to 138% of the poverty level can qualify — and Medicaid and CHIP enrollment is open year-round, not just during open enrollment.
- Compare plans fresh instead of auto-renewing. The plan that was the best deal with enhanced credits is often not the best deal without them.
Not sure what you qualify for?
Lysco’s Government Benefits Finder screens premium tax credit, Medicaid, and CHIP eligibility from a few plain-English questions — so you know which doors are still open before you shop.
Run the benefits screen — freeStep 2: Watch the buy-down trap — a cheaper premium can cost you more
Many people kept coverage in 2026 by “buying down” — switching to a bronze or other high-deductible plan to hold the monthly premium near what they used to pay. Even so, average paid premiums rose about 58%, and 55% of re-enrollees report cutting basic household spending to keep coverage (KFF).
Here is the part almost nobody prices in: a higher deductible means that until you hit it, every medical bill — including every billing mistake — comes out of your own pocket. In a 2024 national study, about 1 in 5 adults got a medical bill they disagreed with or could not afford — and 74% of those who reported a mistake got it corrected (JAMA Health Forum). And 19% of in-network ACA Marketplace claims were denied in 2024, while fewer than 1% of those denials were ever formally appealed (KFF).
When your old plan paid first, a coding error or wrongful denial mostly hit the insurer. With a $7,000 deductible, it hits you. So if you bought down, adopt one rule: never pay a medical bill you have not checked. Ask for an itemized bill, compare it against your EOB, and appeal denials instead of paying them.
Stress-test a plan before you commit
Lysco’s affordability planner tests a plan against your income — premiums, deductible, and what a bad month would actually cost you — so the cheap plan does not surprise you in March.
Stress-test your planThink your bill has errors?
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Get Started FreeStep 3: Know the dates that matter
Open enrollment: November 1 to January 15 (most states)
The yearly window to enroll in or switch Marketplace plans on HealthCare.gov. In most states, enroll by December 15 for coverage starting January 1. Some state-run marketplaces set their own dates — check yours.
Special enrollment: usually 60 days after losing coverage
Losing other coverage — a job-based plan, Medicaid, or CHIP — generally opens a 60-day special enrollment period, so you do not have to wait for open enrollment. Certain other life events (moving, marriage, a new child) also qualify. Details are on HealthCare.gov.
Medicaid and CHIP: year-round
There is no enrollment window. If your income drops at any point — fewer hours, job loss, a new child — check eligibility immediately instead of waiting for November.
What Lysco does — and does not do — here
Honest boundaries, because this matters when money is tight:
- Lysco is not an insurance broker. We do not sell insurance and do not recommend specific plans. For plan shopping and enrollment, use HealthCare.gov or your state marketplace directly — they are free and official.
- Lysco does not contact anyone for you. We prepare analysis, screeners, and letters. You review, sign, and submit everything yourself.
- What we do: screen which programs you may still qualify for, stress-test a plan against your income, and give a free first read of any bill, denial, or EOB — which matters a lot more once you carry a high deductible.
Disclaimer: This guide provides general information about health insurance costs and subsidy rules. It is not medical, legal, tax, or insurance advice, and Lysco is not an insurance broker. Eligibility rules and dates vary by state and can change. For personal advice, use HealthCare.gov, your state marketplace, or a licensed professional.
Carrying a higher deductible now?
Then every bill and denial is your money. Upload any medical bill, denial, or EOB and Lysco gives you a free first read — what it says, what looks wrong, and what your options are.
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